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auto-generated 31-Jan-2021

Healthcare Systems & Services Practice When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? An update Recent news on vaccine and antibody trials has raised hopes worldwide. When will vaccines be available? And is the end of COVID-19 nearer? Here we update our September 21 outlook. by Sarun Charumilind, Matt Craven, Jessica Lamb, Adam Sabow, and Matt Wilson November 2020 Svetikd/Getty Images Since we published our first outlook, on September 21, the COVID-19 pandemic has raged on, with more than 25 million addit

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immunity in the united pfizer s and moderna herd immunity immunity vaccine herd vaccines natural immunity november

Sources: McKinsey

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Type: Strategies

Priority/ Function Areas: Business & Industrial Computers & Electronics Finance Internet & Telecom

Sectors/ Fields of Life: Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Information, Finance & Insurance Technical & Management Services

People/ Roles: Consumer Services Service Vendors Manufacturers Multi-Nationals Governments

Profiles: a rate the portion the months the developments this complexities the pandemic the size the data its populations the case the vaccines that factors the relationship a effort s vaccine the authors the answer the situation a update the combination the term this values whose size oxford science the winter the findings the transition each member the surge a transition the model all rights this treatments the contribution the system the weeks september centers we model all aspects this winter this distinction an locations its candidates bureau variations no issues every increase the world whose patterns a vaccine we modeling this antibodies the protection every advance it vaccine we estimates

Goals: reach safety issues enable familiar scenes refine probability estimates sarscov2 community study reach epidemiological end calculate immunity thresholds end update news herd improved estimates warrant safety records submit authorization request end remains update elevate reach requirements promise serious effects prevent natural immunity reach needed point meet primary endpoint exceed optimistic case reduce symptomatic disease bring headlined hope end update exhibit provide fuller picture reach desired threshold meet primary endpoints offset suggested challenges achieve achieve timeline resume secondary effect assume vaccine scenarios use number r0 enable accurate therapeutics increase immunity levels

Measures: full picture prior exposure epidemiological questions low vaccine low thresholds new questions most experts3 local seroprevalence effective vaccines more interactions limit data early end specific bcell high seroprevalence follow rollout stun developments bustle shops potential revaccination change needs possible scenarios epidemiological end transmission coverage monitor revaccination confirm disease high workers scientific research important distinction late immunity wane levels project levels manufacture distribution many scenes immunity exhibit familiar scenes accurate therapeutics acute coronavirus initial result vaccinate individual additional deaths renew hope early herd particular communities update news public statements recent trials safety issues surprise ways grow armamentarium immunity thresholds herd immunity past months scenario vaccine early immunity rigorous followup immune response covidpandemicend exhibit fast access likely vaccine epidemiological point tricky math available data pandemic immunity serious effects efficacy science secondary effect pfizer trial badly impact different times regular revaccinations regulatory approval effective implementation coverage challenges occur rollout transmission vaccine immu nity expect timeline high rates update information efficacy endpoints average year only refrigeration decline prevalence early doses rapid decay social life community study high immunity clinical presentation high populations enough mortality viral loads reproductive number new treatments low efficacy immunity probability high risk operational guidance epidemiological endpoint effective scaleup severe disease young children conventional freezers southern hemisphere interim analysis many regions interim guidance dan memory herd thresholds improve estimates significant measures annual shots science immunology young populations more infections historical average onemonth acceleration normal won efficacy endpoint late timeline interim data wide reading severe coronavirus difficult winter wide immunity first outlook rapid therapeutics riskadjusted rates likely targets herd issues reasonable confidence disease progression ongoing measures immediate access infectious disease immunological memory monoclonal antibody societyaltering interventions side effects schoolaged children natural levels continue strengthening use request herd nity second point northern hemisphere average consequences few interactions good implementation ongoing revaccination unexpect contours longerterm storage isolate cases numb r0 immune pathways likely timeline normal management latestage trials unclear impact coronavirus vaccine great benefit different places10 own subpopulations wellexecuted distribution ongoing research linger questions widespread transmission good news current literature early timeline longterm vaccine clinical practice early months primary endpoint possible reading final result great durability final data ongoing mortality main ecid25ect safety records timely acceptance high loads new vaccines important data basic r0 forthcoming updates future spikes high thresholds functional end multiple years expand use first analysis naturecom memory second quarter update exhibit public health authorization request sufficient vaccine relevant experts hospitalize patients senior partner symptomatic disease optimistic case downside scenario anticipate duration downside risk efficacy rates immunity levels biologic license improve therapeutics natural immunity hum factories refrigerate temperatures disease advances additional cases primary endpoints jennifer memory recent news coverage requirements probability estimates recent data scientific literature commercial centers coverage threshold nationwide centers own considerations past weeks entire population full approval come months full restaurants wane antibodies desire threshold

Actions: prolong path shift revelations include that mount response dare hope reach issues advance immunology reduce disease mediate memory require exhibit go distribution follow eua reach immunity offset challenges achieve timeline experience impact bring hope consider timelines say nothing prevent vaccine reduce mortality reach point include ranges enroll ages reach normalcy validate this hold potential reduce advances increase levels reach 58 end exhibit have bureau prevent immunity twodose vaccines end news reach moderna give confidence make q3 publish outlook reduce fraction use r0 show durability show ecid18cacy understand science assume vaccine submit request see endpoints assume immunity exceed case cheer announcements refine estimates shed light provide benefit pair vaccines reduce coverage include impact raise questions enable therapeutics prevent range comprise percent encourage uptake advance timeline reduce deaths herd estimates realize eua achieve immunity prevent transmission meet endpoint create risk prevent guidance result vaccine reach timeline necessitate followup bring clarity approach percent thank singhal grant eua herd immunity handle storage reduce transmission go transmission achieve probability enroll children increase concid17dence warrant records q3 immunity thank xavier keep it need refrigeration reduce uncertainty authorize antibody last months delay eua last trial assume scenarios elevate requirements sarscov2 study reach threshold meet endpoints show efficacy win t lower mortality last duration reduce need see immunity raise bar achieve exhibit raise hopes require equipment16 end update keep piece calculate thresholds rollout estimates prevent progression question durability prohibit spikes reserve 8 show rates promise effects mix more13 enable states update outlook increase confidence see transition drive immunity resume effect reach end mediate immunity enable scenes resemble that control risk achieve nity provide picture accelerate timeline fall interventions

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