Lunge Systems: Pathways

BFI_WP_202082

auto-generated 31-Jan-2021

WORKING PAPER NO. 2020-82 Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data Natalie Cox, Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel, Joseph Vavra, Arlene Wong, Diana Farrell, and Fiona Greig JULY 2020 5757 S. University Ave. Chicago, IL 60637 Main: 773.702.5599 bfi.uchicago.edu INITIAL IMPACTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM LINKED INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVINGS DATA* Natalie Cox, Princeton University Peter Ganong, University of Chica

Keywords

share of this spending household in our data changes in the distribution payments and other income savings for these households spending went towards essential level at which economic quartile of the cps spending and an increase

Sources: McKinsey

Pathway Demo and Download Data

You can download the excel file containing Categories, Goals, Measures and Actions. Please use Lunge App, to try the pathway data.

Download Pathway Data

Type: Strategies

Priority/ Function Areas: Business & Industrial Computers & Electronics Finance Internet & Telecom

Sectors/ Fields of Life: Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Information, Finance & Insurance Technical & Management Services

People/ Roles: Consumer Services Service Vendors Manufacturers Multi-Nationals Governments

Profiles: a literature the date this patterns the quartile a caveat the spending the change we data a levels a12 comparison the pandemic this categories the payments we estimate this decline the impacts the eips the rest april spending this stimulus a worker the economy the worker this paper this gure the end this increase we quartile this channel the factor what share the tion we mea this increases we conclusions the number iia change the gains the sample the results the work the magnitude a stand the reduces the difference a13 growth the patterns the increase a factor we results this sults this recession this relationships this households we evidence the quartiles this shift each category every person the composition the amount this difference a spending this series the pansion a household the drops a withdrawals the fact stayat orders a role we information the rates an households the price this table the market all individuals the drop this differences the size this plots the effects all households the denominator its recovers we ndings ui claims the prevalence the growth every household the changes we categories ing statistics the situation the share the overstatement this variation we sample the relationship the group the distribution this supports fe observations the supplement that income we analysis this effects double accounts the checks the balances the panel the recovery the decline the timing the declines the households the channel this facts ne geography ne categories this results we paper a majority this declines

Goals: resent larger share compare labor income receive large increase report based results include debit purchases delay contributed payments spend last columns drive spending declines provide spending changes use distancing orders use additional figure describe estimated changes increase savings liquidity play sizable role investigate heterogeneous effects have large ratio play important role provide disproportionate increase explain disproportionate increase check working actions dominate consumption response reduce factors understanding show sharp drop hold evolved accounts list average income play small role show balance growth figure spending changes exceed dollar increases require physical proximity provide percentage spending balance change trends contribute largest share spend week 50 receive additional 600 provide initial step explore calculate effects research consumer response check figure spending receive total compensation model assuming eips compare same line receive most support include services stores show dramatic difference ected average changes ing income distribution roll unemployed worker calculate separate rate drive replacement rate measure microeconomic dynamics observe initial drop use important distinction switch nonessential services re important role play crucial role explore joint dynamics rescale unemployment rates check change balances measure income figure compare colored lines cut cut fact exhibit spending declines represent larger share change spending facteus measure spending drop investigate cut spending provide substantial boost check impose balances calculate regular unem distinguish income households compute following regression constitute larger share explore level results see largest stimulus receive full payment see large spike match associated payer take unemployment rates plot average level disentangle reopening effects explore distributional effects change spending income disentangle regulatory shutdowns use annual supplement affect savings rates account figure reduction document increased shows capture income losses receive reduced payment exhibit largest declines

Measures: pandemic losses equal weights nancial assets high proximity total balances high income average spending debt payments many sets follow weeks lowincome household weekly withdrawals different exposure relative savings several forces result effects low income check cards initial months relative households same week economic impact national 12see reduce spending liquid wealth overall spending work paper important role different households various stimulus average pay mongey pilossoph same amount previous week particular individuals spend drop new decisions small declines typical responses ect withdrawals relative yearoveryear private savings income support near future pre income aggregate rates large stimulus large growth brief decline level results regular uc low liquidity nonessential travel large employers replacement rates shortterm savings unconditional relationships social supplement dent pace weekly spending certain gories large part administrative data federal fpuc bottom quartile initial impacts individual data consistent refunds easter closures state orders early march account 7we economic tracker small businesses nonessential services absolute increases total changes sim ilarity public use clear effects sizable checks total assets21 total income far light micro data few weeks demographic characteristics prepandemic characteristics replacement rate high infection large increases weekly lines disaggregate categories mechanical effect pandemic assistance relative pattern odd columns top end tax payments monthly bureau pandemic income non categories initial share aggregate data second ctzq second conditions social insurance low percentiles aggregate results confound effects expand transfers department stores commercial deposits many factors aggregate demand payment eips national emergency normal times normative implications incomerelated declines initial stages distinctive pattern large drops nonessential businesses economic payment aggregate declines suggestive correlation current analysis slow recoveries broad decline heterogeneous effects total spending hourly earnings total card unemployment rate insuf cient aggregate decline more figure economic activity regulatory shutdowns precovid balances paper checks lose earnings federal wage expand component far sense many jobs disease burden low balances second half weekly credit debit cards anonymized information average income joint variation aggregate sets nonessential group compel evidence prior year new support third stimulus minimum threshold online streaming chase account spend decisions average drop variable growth pandemic period http wwwearnestresearchcominsights federal pensation sharp drop large increase income data systemic patterns account growth initial increase professional services normal spells different thresholds scandinavian responses least support uncertain times check account datum sources previous estimates retail durables additional precision average levels main bfiuchicagoedu individual quartiles small sample microeconomic dynamics large share relative cuts negative effects many households householdlevel dynamics2 narrow horizon various results spend changes quartile balances prepandemic income high frequency rental cars substantial effects cut spending unprecedented reduction particular channels single institution rich quartile personal rate large balances householdlevel observables keynesian spillovers additional evidence geographic areas essential card high growth aggregate deposits stagger decline great correlation large declines overall declines unbanked spending consumer response estimate changes dollar change most checks main analysis associate policy primary sources unemployed worker follow regression percent change aggregate groups distance orders several reasons several conclusions dramatic difference broad stimulus yearoveryear spending nonessential sectors total compensation average outcomes many ers ment rate total declines inrestaurant dining income boost far insight dependent growth initial balances external evidence bottom end low quartiles full payment previous figure quarterly income act information retail restaurants high households high cut account transactions aggregate relationships social distancing temporary surge covid balances economic consequences gate patterns nonessential declines helpful discussions earnest womply lowincome workers electronic checking unemployment rates average changes consistent industries zip codes weekly figure many ways stayathome restrictions physical proximity percent184b79294m44213b71 figure rapid rebound future policy average balances give industries third households initial step link spending individual level professional workers severe episodes statutory provisions detail results primary factor additional drop individuallevel view disproportionate increase personal consumption joint dynamics account data final balances ofspendingyearoveryearpercent toaggregate vertical lines high end imply value disaggregate cuts concrete sense bank account unemployed workers growthpersonal rate social safety top quintile initial liquidity pandemic weeks distance policies total labor capture deposits economic stimulus total payments same weeks pandemic pensation substantial spending sizable stimulus prepandemic levels low households more assets low wage similar groups weekly supplement liquid cashonhand large decline different policies job loss top quartile reopen effects account information saving rates cps household 1st percentile more wealth balancesincome quartiles same point large ratio new tracker substantial differences common declines live table many payments typical spending initial declines regular assistance narrow areas analytic contributions low end economic payments future work different nets causal relationships direct deposits high level top table cash withdrawals general declines saving growth unemployment ts great cajner consumption response marginal propensity nonessential stores confound factors separate rate unemploy rate important share income distribution average earnings current conditions initial spending substantial boost small share nonessential category relative percentage private sector general effects additional results great losses relative stimulus simulationbased estimates individual changes unemployed ers essential spending federal supplement pandemic expenditures many families physical location card spending vulnerable households small role relate losses total savings same zip cautionary implications tran actions lowincome ers variable figure additional ts broad recession pervasive increases check transactions restrictive shutdowns liquid assets reduce payment similar sources many stores low industries spend declines right panel annual supplement debit cash recipiency rate liquid savings crucial role nancial institution essential categories rapid recovery aggregate spending outstanding contributions nonessential card income measure liquid asset additional moments aggregate balances nonessential account inclusive spending observe differences ect features change trends essential trips relative percent scandinavian bank aggregate codes aggregate sources large spike low pay low workers normal spending main contribution important distinction initial shares balance growth unconditional distribution same line point decline front households aggregate savings initial avoidance unconditional tribution large rms sizable role final spending spurious declines unique features minimum wage labor income few months historical relationships great spending relative drop similar patterns yearoveryear change pandemic tech several categories fourth week absolute terms spend lessons stayathome orders practical advantage expect income bene ts essential businesses different lines category splits key driver pandemic channels baseline level average account nonessential figure high quartile income households most states lowincome households many goods different locations individual spending percentage change similar quartiles relative balances spend responses check balances weekly panel income figure great burden liquid growth weekly card heterogeneous responses current population more workers posttax income generous checks cps measure earnings history direct effects causal evidence initial losses colore lines aggregate drop third week relate channels iib change nonbusiness account realtime tracker economic analysis individual levels pandemic responses nonessential spending check accounts quartile dummies same time last information similar sample consumer spending last week liquid balances important implications monthly income mismeasured households colore line essential figure median income available cashonhand weekly quintiles similar data bottom income prepandemic shares economic research incomespend relationships account balances expand supplement signi cance detail splits sure unemployment pandemic toaggregate great exposure supplyside recession average level dollar balances current survey nonessential goods unbanked households pandemic fpuc aggregate increase rapid increases last columns wide range many workers income losses total spending7 cash figure relative role initial drop many businesses long delays recent months stimulus checks low locations separate role additional concerns geographic level huge declines affect sectors quartile increases national rate eip eligibility dollar increases quartile spending aggressive stimulus most support important caveat distributional effects nonessential categories additional figure relative increase massive relative

Actions: receive 600 contribute share recover most include closures observe income receive ui include possibility drive decisions measure dynamics impose threshold include purchases describe changes manage nances disentangle effects stabilize balances require us analyze dynamics2 report results research response drive majority produce variation spend levels roll fpuc explore relationship check transactions mirror those consume evidence use change contribute much spend declines decrease most check spending spend change understand patterns help control mea unemployment shed light save more maintain income restrict goods exceed increases match rate answer question see spike adjust which limit uence stabilize spending balance sources spend responses provide reassurance imply decline spend panel owe refunds explore effects show growth disentangle shutdowns cut fact missis households take rates drive spending owe increase observe drop distance pilossoph include spending balance change provide changes focus rst explain transfers explore thresholds affect rates bear which leave cities restrict cance underlie patterns make 28000 provide sense use supplement model eips leaf us allow household drive relationships provide evidence assign individuals receive increase disentangle effect aggregate year thank robertson cut sample change income face delays calculate changes hold assets see increases use cards give household maintain spending check accounts use cps explore results investigate effects plot level result income delay payments drive rate change levels disaggregate spending change half explore differences compare line check growth measure facteus reopen it understand sources decline decomposition look checks use account receive payments compare change observe cash compare contribution adjust spending measure drop compare lines show signs receive support consume more interpret data limit ability spend patterns observe patterns run regressions drive increase rescale rates drive type live ilarity explain increase increase liquidity reduce understanding use weights explore table simulate changes reduce activities replace 100 include households experience loss use provisions avoid issues limit effects observe that process transactions exclude anyone transfer assets link we demarcate date introduce concerns subside figure provide spending check balances differentiate role provide plots understate increase overstate income induce declines spend 50 add checks prevent spread make trips understand link drive more fall least constitute share drop nd check 7we measure change discern patterns include them restore ability require proximity multiply shares earn 63000 observe what study dynamics minimize 15note dominate response raise question re features distinguish households state wwwearnestresearchcominsights know 19 use codes reduce savings ected changes ascertain industry owe money link observables understand factors impose screens explore codes hold accounts use figure show difference include stores adjust measure provide transfers check ows lose job explain recovery reduce income resent share use distinction receive ts drive declines limit analysis require earnings face declines avoid risk recover limitation explain dip balance trends compare columns give eip conclude what re role determine eligibility boost savings model phase figure changes match payer split workers spend data4 use data explore dynamics save payments show date understand source interpret patterns smooth consumption consider businesses measure figure measure spending have ratio depress spending compute spending switch services see stimulus compute regression split spending calculate rate spend we spend payments phase stimulus cover households use everyone require 12000 compare magnitude target households contribute more suggest lowerincome cut spending spend reductions affect spending cut households include reports calculate unem curtail spend track pattern spend version increase balances sort households ing distribution spend columns compare income receive compensation boost rates increase savings affect responses document shows represent share aggregate growth provide step discuss more take steps check actions adjust table investigate spending reduce role measure industry provide insight decompose decline change facteus exhibit declines calibrate size use information exploit variation play role use ratio juxtapose estimates show drop receive uc understand causes bear burden observe covariates capture households decompose trend contribute dispro list income speak stores stockpile goods spend categories expand ts panel a categorize spend illustrate divergence thank eberly use sources skew results receive payment use orders spend analysis stagger 12see ecting combination stratify sample report outcomes roll worker arrive timing recover differences provide increase capture losses account reduction provide boost transform recession include checks check account calculate uc

Organization:

Find Pathways:

Keywords

Pathway Demo and Download Data