Data Snapshot
auto-generated 31-Jan-2021
WORKING PAPER NO. 2020-82 Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data Natalie Cox, Peter Ganong, Pascal Noel, Joseph Vavra, Arlene Wong, Diana Farrell, and Fiona Greig JULY 2020 5757 S. University Ave. Chicago, IL 60637 Main: 773.702.5599 bfi.uchicago.edu INITIAL IMPACTS OF THE PANDEMIC ON CONSUMER BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM LINKED INCOME, SPENDING, AND SAVINGS DATA* Natalie Cox, Princeton University Peter Ganong, University of Chica


share of this spending household in our data changes in the distribution payments and other income savings for these households spending went towards essential level at which economic quartile of the cps spending and an increase

Sources: McKinsey

Pathway Demo and Download Data

You can download the excel file containing Categories, Goals, Measures and Actions. Please use Lunge App, to try the pathway data.
This section lists the Pathway type, Priority/ function areas, Sectors/ fields of life and People/ roles for the pathway.
Type:   Strategies
This section lists the Categories, Goals, Measures and Actions included in the pathway.
Profiles:   a literature   the date   this patterns   the quartile   a caveat   the spending   the change   we data   a levels   a12 comparison   the pandemic   this categories   the payments   we estimate   this decline   the impacts   the eips   the rest   april spending   this stimulus   a worker   the economy   the worker   this paper   this gure   the end   this increase   we quartile   this channel   the factor   what share   the tion   we mea   this increases   we conclusions   the number   iia change   the gains   the sample   the results   the work   the magnitude   a stand   the reduces   the difference   a13 growth   the patterns   the increase   a factor   we results   this sults   this recession   this relationships   this households   we evidence   the quartiles   this shift   each category   every person   the composition   the amount   this difference   a spending   this series   the pansion   a household   the drops   a withdrawals   the fact   stayat orders   a role   we information   the rates   an households   the price   this table   the market   all individuals   the drop   this differences   the size   this plots   the effects   all households   the denominator   its recovers   we ndings   ui claims   the prevalence   the growth   every household   the changes   we categories   ing statistics   the situation   the share   the overstatement   this variation   we sample   the relationship   the group   the distribution   this supports   fe observations   the supplement   that income   we analysis   this effects   double accounts   the checks   the balances   the panel   the recovery   the decline   the timing   the declines   the households   the channel   this facts   ne geography   ne categories   this results   we paper   a majority   this declines
Goals:   resent larger share   compare labor income   receive large increase   report based results   include debit purchases   delay contributed payments   spend last columns   drive spending declines   provide spending changes   use distancing orders   use additional figure   describe estimated changes   increase savings liquidity   play sizable role   investigate heterogeneous effects   have large ratio   play important role   provide disproportionate increase   explain disproportionate increase   check working actions   dominate consumption response   reduce factors understanding   show sharp drop   hold evolved accounts   list average income   play small role   show balance growth   figure spending changes   exceed dollar increases   require physical proximity   provide percentage spending   balance change trends   contribute largest share   spend week 50   receive additional 600   provide initial step   explore calculate effects   research consumer response   check figure spending   receive total compensation   model assuming eips   compare same line   receive most support   include services stores   show dramatic difference   ected average changes   ing income distribution   roll unemployed worker   calculate separate rate   drive replacement rate   measure microeconomic dynamics   observe initial drop   use important distinction   switch nonessential services   re important role   play crucial role   explore joint dynamics   rescale unemployment rates   check change balances   measure income figure   compare colored lines   cut cut fact   exhibit spending declines   represent larger share   change spending facteus   measure spending drop   investigate cut spending   provide substantial boost   check impose balances   calculate regular unem   distinguish income households   compute following regression   constitute larger share   explore level results   see largest stimulus   receive full payment   see large spike   match associated payer   take unemployment rates   plot average level   disentangle reopening effects   explore distributional effects   change spending income   disentangle regulatory shutdowns   use annual supplement   affect savings rates   account figure reduction   document increased shows   capture income losses   receive reduced payment   exhibit largest declines
Measures:   pandemic losses   equal weights   nancial assets   high proximity   total balances   high income   average spending   debt payments   many sets   follow weeks   lowincome household   weekly withdrawals   different exposure   relative savings   several forces   result effects   low income   check cards   initial months   relative households   same week   economic impact   national 12see   reduce spending   liquid wealth   overall spending   work paper   important role   different households   various stimulus   average pay   mongey pilossoph   same amount   previous week   particular individuals   spend drop   new decisions   small declines   typical responses   ect withdrawals   relative yearoveryear   private savings   income support   near future   pre income   aggregate rates   large stimulus   large growth   brief decline   level results   regular uc   low liquidity   nonessential travel   large employers   replacement rates   shortterm savings   unconditional relationships   social supplement   dent pace   weekly spending   certain gories   large part   administrative data   federal fpuc   bottom quartile   initial impacts   individual data   consistent refunds   easter closures   state orders   early march   account 7we   economic tracker   small businesses   nonessential services   absolute increases   total changes   sim ilarity   public use   clear effects   sizable checks   total assets21   total income   far light   micro data   few weeks   demographic characteristics   prepandemic characteristics   replacement rate   high infection   large increases   weekly lines   disaggregate categories   mechanical effect   pandemic assistance   relative pattern   odd columns   top end   tax payments   monthly bureau   pandemic income   non categories   initial share   aggregate data   second ctzq   second conditions   social insurance   low percentiles   aggregate results   confound effects   expand transfers   department stores   commercial deposits   many factors   aggregate demand   payment eips   national emergency   normal times   normative implications   incomerelated declines   initial stages   distinctive pattern   large drops   nonessential businesses   economic payment   aggregate declines   suggestive correlation   current analysis   slow recoveries   broad decline   heterogeneous effects   total spending   hourly earnings   total card   unemployment rate   insuf cient   aggregate decline   more figure   economic activity   regulatory shutdowns   precovid balances   paper checks   lose earnings   federal wage   expand component   far sense   many jobs   disease burden   low balances   second half   weekly credit   debit cards   anonymized information   average income   joint variation   aggregate sets   nonessential group   compel evidence   prior year   new support   third stimulus   minimum threshold   online streaming   chase account   spend decisions   average drop   variable growth   pandemic period   http wwwearnestresearchcominsights   federal pensation   sharp drop   large increase   income data   systemic patterns   account growth   initial increase   professional services   normal spells   different thresholds   scandinavian responses   least support   uncertain times   check account   datum sources   previous estimates   retail durables   additional precision   average levels   main bfiuchicagoedu   individual quartiles   small sample   microeconomic dynamics   large share   relative cuts   negative effects   many households   householdlevel dynamics2   narrow horizon   various results   spend changes   quartile balances   prepandemic income   high frequency   rental cars   substantial effects   cut spending   unprecedented reduction   particular channels   single institution   rich quartile   personal rate   large balances   householdlevel observables   keynesian spillovers   additional evidence   geographic areas   essential card   high growth   aggregate deposits   stagger decline   great correlation   large declines   overall declines   unbanked spending   consumer response   estimate changes   dollar change   most checks   main analysis   associate policy   primary sources   unemployed worker   follow regression   percent change   aggregate groups   distance orders   several reasons   several conclusions   dramatic difference   broad stimulus   yearoveryear spending   nonessential sectors   total compensation   average outcomes   many ers   ment rate   total declines   inrestaurant dining   income boost   far insight   dependent growth   initial balances   external evidence   bottom end   low quartiles   full payment   previous figure   quarterly income   act information   retail restaurants   high households   high cut   account transactions   aggregate relationships   social distancing   temporary surge   covid balances   economic consequences   gate patterns   nonessential declines   helpful discussions   earnest womply   lowincome workers   electronic checking   unemployment rates   average changes   consistent industries   zip codes   weekly figure   many ways   stayathome restrictions   physical proximity   percent184b79294m44213b71 figure   rapid rebound   future policy   average balances   give industries   third households   initial step   link spending   individual level   professional workers   severe episodes   statutory provisions   detail results   primary factor   additional drop   individuallevel view   disproportionate increase   personal consumption   joint dynamics   account data   final balances   ofspendingyearoveryearpercent toaggregate   vertical lines   high end   imply value   disaggregate cuts   concrete sense   bank account   unemployed workers   growthpersonal rate   social safety   top quintile   initial liquidity   pandemic weeks   distance policies   total labor   capture deposits   economic stimulus   total payments   same weeks   pandemic pensation   substantial spending   sizable stimulus   prepandemic levels   low households   more assets   low wage   similar groups   weekly supplement   liquid cashonhand   large decline   different policies   job loss   top quartile   reopen effects   account information   saving rates   cps household   1st percentile   more wealth   balancesincome quartiles   same point   large ratio   new tracker   substantial differences   common declines   live table   many payments   typical spending   initial declines   regular assistance   narrow areas   analytic contributions   low end   economic payments   future work   different nets   causal relationships   direct deposits   high level   top table   cash withdrawals   general declines   saving growth   unemployment ts   great cajner   consumption response   marginal propensity   nonessential stores   confound factors   separate rate   unemploy rate   important share   income distribution   average earnings   current conditions   initial spending   substantial boost   small share   nonessential category   relative percentage   private sector   general effects   additional results   great losses   relative stimulus   simulationbased estimates   individual changes   unemployed ers   essential spending   federal supplement   pandemic expenditures   many families   physical location   card spending   vulnerable households   small role   relate losses   total savings   same zip   cautionary implications   tran actions   lowincome ers   variable figure   additional ts   broad recession   pervasive increases   check transactions   restrictive shutdowns   liquid assets   reduce payment   similar sources   many stores   low industries   spend declines   right panel   annual supplement   debit cash   recipiency rate   liquid savings   crucial role   nancial institution   essential categories   rapid recovery   aggregate spending   outstanding contributions   nonessential card   income measure   liquid asset   additional moments   aggregate balances   nonessential account   inclusive spending   observe differences   ect features   change trends   essential trips   relative percent   scandinavian bank   aggregate codes   aggregate sources   large spike   low pay   low workers   normal spending   main contribution   important distinction   initial shares   balance growth   unconditional distribution   same line   point decline   front households   aggregate savings   initial avoidance   unconditional tribution   large rms   sizable role   final spending   spurious declines   unique features   minimum wage   labor income   few months   historical relationships   great spending   relative drop   similar patterns   yearoveryear change   pandemic tech   several categories   fourth week   absolute terms   spend lessons   stayathome orders   practical advantage   expect income   bene ts   essential businesses   different lines   category splits   key driver   pandemic channels   baseline level   average account   nonessential figure   high quartile   income households   most states   lowincome households   many goods   different locations   individual spending   percentage change   similar quartiles   relative balances   spend responses   check balances   weekly panel   income figure   great burden   liquid growth   weekly card   heterogeneous responses   current population   more workers   posttax income   generous checks   cps measure   earnings history   direct effects   causal evidence   initial losses   colore lines   aggregate drop   third week   relate channels   iib change   nonbusiness account   realtime tracker   economic analysis   individual levels   pandemic responses   nonessential spending   check accounts   quartile dummies   same time   last information   similar sample   consumer spending   last week   liquid balances   important implications   monthly income   mismeasured households   colore line   essential figure   median income   available cashonhand   weekly quintiles   similar data   bottom income   prepandemic shares   economic research   incomespend relationships   account balances   expand supplement   signi cance   detail splits   sure unemployment   pandemic toaggregate   great exposure   supplyside recession   average level   dollar balances   current survey   nonessential goods   unbanked households   pandemic fpuc   aggregate increase   rapid increases   last columns   wide range   many workers   income losses   total spending7   cash figure   relative role   initial drop   many businesses   long delays   recent months   stimulus checks   low locations   separate role   additional concerns   geographic level   huge declines   affect sectors   quartile increases   national rate   eip eligibility   dollar increases   quartile spending   aggressive stimulus   most support   important caveat   distributional effects   nonessential categories   additional figure   relative increase   massive relative
Actions:   receive 600   contribute share   recover most   include closures   observe income   receive ui   include possibility   drive decisions   measure dynamics   impose threshold   include purchases   describe changes   manage nances   disentangle effects   stabilize balances   require us   analyze dynamics2   report results   research response   drive majority   produce variation   spend levels   roll fpuc   explore relationship   check transactions   mirror those   consume evidence   use change   contribute much   spend declines   decrease most   check spending   spend change   understand patterns   help control   mea unemployment   shed light   save more   maintain income   restrict goods   exceed increases   match rate   answer question   see spike   adjust which   limit uence   stabilize spending   balance sources   spend responses   provide reassurance   imply decline   spend panel   owe refunds   explore effects   show growth   disentangle shutdowns   cut fact   missis households   take rates   drive spending   owe increase   observe drop   distance pilossoph   include spending   balance change   provide changes   focus rst   explain transfers   explore thresholds   affect rates   bear which   leave cities   restrict cance   underlie patterns   make 28000   provide sense   use supplement   model eips   leaf us   allow household   drive relationships   provide evidence   assign individuals   receive increase   disentangle effect   aggregate year   thank robertson   cut sample   change income   face delays   calculate changes   hold assets   see increases   use cards   give household   maintain spending   check accounts   use cps   explore results   investigate effects   plot level   result income   delay payments   drive rate   change levels   disaggregate spending   change half   explore differences   compare line   check growth   measure facteus   reopen it   understand sources   decline decomposition   look checks   use account   receive payments   compare change   observe cash   compare contribution   adjust spending   measure drop   compare lines   show signs   receive support   consume more   interpret data   limit ability   spend patterns   observe patterns   run regressions   drive increase   rescale rates   drive type   live ilarity   explain increase   increase liquidity   reduce understanding   use weights   explore table   simulate changes   reduce activities   replace 100   include households   experience loss   use provisions   avoid issues   limit effects   observe that   process transactions   exclude anyone   transfer assets   link we   demarcate date   introduce concerns   subside figure   provide spending   check balances   differentiate role   provide plots   understate increase   overstate income   induce declines   spend 50   add checks   prevent spread   make trips   understand link   drive more   fall least   constitute share   drop nd   check 7we   measure change   discern patterns   include them   restore ability   require proximity   multiply shares   earn 63000   observe what   study dynamics   minimize 15note   dominate response   raise question   re features   distinguish households   state wwwearnestresearchcominsights   know 19   use codes   reduce savings   ected changes   ascertain industry   owe money   link observables   understand factors   impose screens   explore codes   hold accounts   use figure   show difference   include stores   adjust measure   provide transfers   check ows   lose job   explain recovery   reduce income   resent share   use distinction   receive ts   drive declines   limit analysis   require earnings   face declines   avoid risk   recover limitation   explain dip   balance trends   compare columns   give eip   conclude what   re role   determine eligibility   boost savings   model phase   figure changes   match payer   split workers   spend data4   use data   explore dynamics   save payments   show date   understand source   interpret patterns   smooth consumption   consider businesses   measure figure   measure spending   have ratio   depress spending   compute spending   switch services   see stimulus   compute regression   split spending   calculate rate   spend we   spend payments   phase stimulus   cover households   use everyone   require 12000   compare magnitude   target households   contribute more   suggest lowerincome   cut spending   spend reductions   affect spending   cut households   include reports   calculate unem   curtail spend   track pattern   spend version   increase balances   sort households   ing distribution   spend columns   compare income   receive compensation   boost rates   increase savings   affect responses   document shows   represent share   aggregate growth   provide step   discuss more   take steps   check actions   adjust table   investigate spending   reduce role   measure industry   provide insight   decompose decline   change facteus   exhibit declines   calibrate size   use information   exploit variation   play role   use ratio   juxtapose estimates   show drop   receive uc   understand causes   bear burden   observe covariates   capture households   decompose trend   contribute dispro   list income   speak stores   stockpile goods   spend categories   expand ts   panel a   categorize spend   illustrate divergence   thank eberly   use sources   skew results   receive payment   use orders   spend analysis   stagger 12see   ecting combination   stratify sample   report outcomes   roll worker   arrive timing   recover differences   provide increase   capture losses   account reduction   provide boost   transform recession   include checks   check account   calculate uc
This section lists the details about pathway-specific attributes.