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w27216
auto-generated 31-Jan-2021
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES US UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE REPLACEMENT RATES DURING THE PANDEMIC Peter Ganong Pascal J. Noel Joseph S. Vavra Working Paper 27216 http: www.nber.org/papers/w27216 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2020 We thank Gabe Chodorow-Reich, Michele Evermore, Jason Faberman, Nathaniel Hendren, Bruce Meyer, Marokey Sawo, Wayne Vroman and Stephen Wandner for helpful feedback, and Peter Robertson, Roshan Mahanth and Isaac Liu for ex

Keywords

state with that state unemployed in each state pandemic since this data distribution of the unemployed income of the unemployed workers have a statutory data on mean earnings compensation in their state nevada has a replacement

Sources: McKinsey

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This section lists the Pathway type, Priority/ function areas, Sectors/ fields of life and People/ roles for the pathway.
Type:   Strategies
This section lists the Categories, Goals, Measures and Actions included in the pathway.
Profiles:   a rate   the implications   the janitor   a visualization   ui systems   we estimate   that draft   the intuition   this supplements   the numerator   the presence   this calculation   the majority   this caps   every worker   the worker   the ratio   this gure   the payment   the system   a quintiles   this increase   the cps   we estimates   we measure   we method   no survey   the change   the tribution   the propensity   the sample   the variable   we rates   bene schedules   the row   the schedule   the coronavirus   a share   this data   each worker   this papers   we results   the estimates   the errors   the error   this conclusions   a worker   the structure   c earnings   this share   this patterns   the program   the survey   the spending   this methodology   this factor   the views   the denominator   the unit   the bonus   the gure   this pattern   the rates   this table   the rate   a increase   a ect   this plement   the columns   that panel   this procedure   the threat   the similarity   the income   the ects   the earnings   its income   an workers   a supplement   this workers   this errors   we https   this interactions   the value   the draft   the line   this types   this erence   we simulator   its earnings   the provision   the expansion   the distribution   the procedure   the supplement   this rates   this analysis   we section   this payment   we analysis   this document   the fraction   a1 comparison   this system   vavra ects   the treatment   this results   we paper   a calculator   the level   the fpuc
Goals:   change expected income   generate replacement rates   overstate replacement rate   understate total pay   multiply health ts   show replacement rate   play important role   use replacement rates   include eligible people   estimate earnings history   add imputed ts   recompute main statistics   compute replacement rates   reach using conclusions   hamper labor reallocation   reverse income changes   evaluate distributional consequences   include compensation account   target average rate   understand distributional incidence   give preferred measure   outline eligibility criteria   use reweighting procedure   explore robustness checks   lead expected income   reverse income patterns   estimate median rate   explore methodology checks   compute weekly wage   show jobs e   interpret replicated calculations   measure labor market   yield estimated rate   increase replacement rates   calculate replacement rates   use regular compensation   include wage compensation   compute assuming changes   receive equal ts   bring replacement rates   achieve replacement rates   compute comprehensive rate   run following logitp   introduce distributional concerns   exceed compare rates   exceed tipped workers   provide treatment compensation   exceed individual order   analyze loss earnings   shift previous schedule   simulate earnings history   include row recipients   meet eligibility criteria   raise undermeasuring concern   rescale insurance contributions   include search frictions   use estimated cients   meet normal threshold   write current estimate   measure owed ts   exceed lost wages   recipient sixth row   receive equal payments   exceed calculated measures   use unemployment ts   overstate replacement rates   exceed total compensation   imply earnings replacement   generate earnings replacement   exceed tax wages   provide additional pay   estimate based rates   enter labor market   use expansive nition   require imputation procedure   understand spending patterns   assume replacement rates   capture earnings distribution   show median fraction   provide largest t   report robustness check   include compensation row   calculate conditional rates   document basic patterns   address report concern   find see evidence   raise median rate   multiply average t   manufacture professional services   collect increases show   provide necessary liquidity   use replicate weights   include 25th recipients
Measures:   labor supply   low earnings   recent earnings   enough income   continue supplements   excellent assistance   rst nition   third quintile   main statistics   weekly wage   wholesale industries   statutory rates   parttime jobs   prior sections   individual order   key ingredients   conditional rates   important role   replacement rates   most workers   eligibility criteria   single person   employ worker   various robustness   insurance contributions   employerprovided insurance   robustness check   typical worker   work paper   low rates   social supplement   substantial variation   important outcomes   aftertax ts   federal compensation   helpful feedback   administrative data   federal fpuc   initial impacts   retail trade   similar results   alternative incidence   prior job   relevant frictions   large percentage   monetary eligibility   financial support   large increases   necessary liquidity   high earnings   low workers   multiple surveys   overall cash   unemployed lowwage   reweighting procedure   several dimensions   unemployed person   actual analysis   pandemic assistance   pretax ts   regional data   puainclusive rate   total pay   replicate weights   micro data   high rate   important concerns   replacement rate   same period   potential wages   initial stages   mean earnings   compensation row   alternative periods   distributional consequences   ment rates   positive role   median workers   high jobs   skew distributions   sizable options   logit regression   great increases   economic activity   typical earnings   hourly earnings   imputation procedure   large t   expansive nition   aggregate demand   selfemployment drop   likely claimants   actual variation   limit earnings   work series   normal times   total ts   bootstrap replicates   unemployed janitors   careful reconciliation   sharp kink   median change   supple ments   unemployment rate   good data   recipiency rates   unemployment assistance   lose compensation   lose earnings   federal wage   average wage   retail workers   impute ts   high replacement   discount value   low income   quarterly earnings   key features   bottom quintile   expect value   labor market   high earners   academic literature   prior literature   pay increases   alternative assumptions   nber publications   comprehensive rate   supplementary payments   distributional incidence   good proxy   median worker   prior earnings   pandemic compensation   federal pensation   search frictions   bottom deciles   common occupations   unemployed supplement   equal ts   overall income   broad measure   first months   weekly statei   same show   various sizes   income changes   external benchmarks   average levels   loss earnings   presidential memorandum   depress employment   unprecedented period   pandemic b   high quarter   19the order   estimate ts   previous values   samplingbased uncertainty   available workers   prior wage   overall distribution   pandemic references   median teacher   such data   regression logitp   important turn   broad notion   consump tion   short sections   high unemployment   fpuc janitors   regular panel   unemployed worker   earn workers   last year   sizable variation   substantial variance   current estimates   eventual recovery   individual workerlevel   fpuc supplement   moral hazard   bitler hoynes   retail transport   expect changes   median laido   additional pay   report error   main analysis   prior jobs   outgo group   median rates   employerprovided ts   total compensation   selfemployed people   sectoral changes   empirical size   potential match   tip workers   tax wages   various values   substantial interest   policy options   estimate cients   social distancing   public health   fourth quintile   income patterns   total wages   average precares   high prevalence   monthly sample   tip occupations   wage income   important ects   crucial liquidity   lowincome workers   employerprovided contributions   labor compensation   prior draft   eligible people   important21 table   link spending   slack market   explicit permission   exante increases   weekly ts   cial rate   available jobs   normal ts   wage compensation   actual rates   grouplevel patterns   increase figure   regular compensation   disaggregate results   prejob earnings   high rates   economic conditions   massive declines   differential treatment   prehensive measure   nonwage row   standard error   individual earnings   basic cps   second quintile   unemployed workers   previous schedule   sample uncertainty   descriptive analysis   imply rates   alternative nitions   pandemic pensation   pandemic validation   average compensation   minimum payment   national distribution   second nition   budgetary cost   great declines   previous earnings   important consequences   coe cients   increase risk   same earnings   medical assistants   earnings distribution   correspond bins   median fraction   economic recovery   social safety   expost employment   hazard pay   third row   basic patterns   estimate rate   distributional concerns   material hardship   merge morg   empirical question   tradeo s   bene t   essential workers   red lines   dark region   recipiency rate   low earners   unemployment ts   main sample   individual decisions   light region   panel b   economic dislocation   overall tightness   average ts   acceptance impacts   public administration   optimal policy   average amount   pandemic workers   max t   overall patterns   average earnings   monthly cps   executive order   current conditions   correspond table   cient reallocation   statutory replacement   more jobs   pandemic program   substantial heterogeneity   overall dynamics   erential tax   compensation account   normal threshold   increase demand   actual income   private workers   robustness checks   voluntary quitters   unemployment compensation   nonwage account   financial activities   weekly distribution   aggregate employment   25th percentile   normal groups   ect workers   healthy market   previous wages   employ workers   additional ts   similar conclusions   aggregate spending   total number   pretax earnings   unemployment claims   annual supplement   weekly earnings   similar reversals   average t   precise table   top quintile   replication materials   aftertax rates   total variation   nonwage compensation   eligible workers   retail worker   quarterly history   health ts   asec data   eligibility threshold   dramatic declines   important factors   important table   similar workers   bene ts   average rate   follow logitp   full credit   actual ts   xed supplement   individual worker   median level   current survey   sixth row   entire distribution   fourth row   various occupations12   spend patterns   labor income   skew earnings   selfemployment earnings   standard errors   expect income   publiclyavailable source   labor reallocation   advantageous increases   non compensation   annual earnings   lose wages   current interest   absolute terms   present value   pandemic tech   median wage   ected incidence   academic interest   multiple ways   bar charts   observable dimensions   weekly panel   75th percentile   pua recipients   median rate   early parts   selfemployment table   estimate rates   aggregate rate   observable characteristics   cial reallocation   same information   selfemployment income   statutory rate   earnings history   unemployed figure   increase employment   expand tech   perfect equality   enhance system   official publications   illustrative example   equal payments   actual claimants   early months   mean rates   same time   selfemployment interactions   50th percentile   important implications   national results   large set   online materials   mean replacement   same rate   economic research   relative rates   median earnings   good way   comprehensive rates   prefer measure   prior wages   additional checks   current estimate   large rates   distributional implications   basic sample   main estimate   initial expiration   pandemic fpuc   online shopping   many workers   more 3most   many businesses   comparative t   high workers   empirical estimates   educational transportation   substantial hiring   overall rates   pecuniary ts   earnings replacement   automatic increases   same occupation   alternative policies   aftertax rate   few workers
Actions:   show schedule   provide ts   receive ui   bring rates   provide t   examine may   use asec   require ts   debate range   describe implications   choose nevada   use ts   replicate nding   include account   show rate   capture uncertainty   multiply t   thank chodorowreich   replicate weights   manufacture services   combine data   balance s   show share   alter distribution   capture supply   provide evidence   add ts   explore results   report income   total compensation   reconcile claims   capture composition   implement policies   compare t   use rates   meet criteria   overstate rate   expand ui   incorporate row   compute distribution   reverse patterns   study probability   exceed measures   generate rates   report tips   consider eligibility   deter supply   increase rates   enter market   combine ingredients   bolster credibility   divide schedule   explore incidence   estimate rates   estimate level   use data   estimate equation   simulate earnings   imply replacement   drop workers   reverse changes   capture distribution   receive pay   include 35   add amounts   compare earnings   show fraction   compare estimates   amplify conclusions   identify workers   target rate   use that   calculate t   tip workers   use distribution   write estimate   use act   combine adjustments   lose calculations   show estimate   mark equality   explore issue   low value   use benchmarks   add 600   asses validity   replicate b   include nonwage   design ratio   accompany publications   collect 166   pay leave   combine evidence   bachas al   evaluate consequences   collect show   analyze earnings   stimulate casado   collect ts   see 2020b   assess impacts   raise concern   show distribution   thank institute   use what   ask workers   include frictions   measure market   use conclusion   predict probability   disincentive ects   impute compensation   compute ect   pay tips   lead us   simulate history   show that   calculate part   document patterns   use procedure   reserve sections   induce s   achieve rates   precede order   reach t   compute changes   prompt workers   undermeasuring tips   shift schedule   plot error   understand patterns   outline criteria   use compensation   focus that   use estimates   use replicates   incorporate two   hire this   require information   deter type   yield rate   exceed distribution   see notes   cover workers   lead analysis   compute question   report results   replace fraction   replace percent   increase interactions   have rates   raise value   calculate ts   generate replacement   explore checks   exceed order   process claims   exclude occupations   understate pay   understand incidence   include row   receive ts   calculate distribution   multiply 223   implement supplement   compare value   equal level   capture history   use nition   exceed wages   commensurate declines   imply rates   expand eligibility   receive payments   smooth tion   compare calculations   introduce concerns   recompute statistics   exceed workers   insure households   restrict analysis   use industry   include shows   21see materials   use charts   count income   receive compensation   use weights   include tipped   impute ts   capture nonwage   include recipients   provide liquidity   combine information   provide pay   measure rates   use analysis   capture compensation   require calculator   compare ts   overstate rates   add income   lose jobs   include tips   send supplement   receive nonwage   set level   compute wage   use panel   plot analysis   impute workerlevel   address concern   capture people   change conclusion   amplify 10462204   robustness estimate   consider scenario   provide errors   show e   exclude workers   match distribution   play role   hamper reallocation   assume rate   assume rates   use set   receive increases   show ts   compute supplement   convey intuition   exceed income   construct estimates   deter employment   meet threshold   turn estimate   incorporate compensation   require procedure   earn assistance   earn more   highearning workers   earn income   include compensation   accept o   explore implications   boost income   raise rate   measure ts   exceed compensation   explore robustness   quit job   report check   claim ui   exceed rates   capture restrictions   find evidence   exceed paragraphs   use cients   change income   show results   track variation   replace wage   reflect views   multiply ts   compute rates   face declines   drop occupations   stimulate spending   lead income   rescale contributions   run logitp   tie level   explore role   lose wages   compute rate   recipient row   estimate history   add supplement   estimate rate   take stand   pay bonuses   fpuc size   restrict sample   include income   estimate ts   capture heterogeneity   receive payment   interpret calculations   calculate rates   may 17   reach conclusions   give measure   tie remainder   explore interactions   include people   calculate denominator   provide compensation
This section lists the details about pathway-specific attributes.