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auto-generated 31-Jan-2021

Healthcare Systems & Services Practice When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? Normalcy by spring, and herd immunity by fall? We assess the prospects for an end in 2021. This article was a collaborative effort by Sarun Charumilind, Matt Craven, Jessica Lamb, Adam Sabow, and Matt Wilson. September 2020 Svetikd/Getty Images In 1920, a world wearied by the First World War and sickened by the 1918 flu pandemic desperately sought to move past the struggles and tragedies and start to rebuild lives. Peopl

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immunity apart from vaccines immunity through other vaccines herd immunity immunity herd achieve herd immunity cid united states end

Sources: McKinsey

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Type: Strategies

Priority/ Function Areas: Business & Industrial Computers & Electronics Finance Internet & Telecom

Sectors/ Fields of Life: Manufacturing Wholesale & Retail Trade Information, Finance & Insurance Technical & Management Services

People/ Roles: Consumer Services Service Vendors Manufacturers Multi-Nationals Governments

Profiles: a rate every country the transition september weforumorg the pandemic the proportion an studies the case a number the granting this article the authors the vaccine the milestone the variables bcg vaccination a thresh nina immunity the time the number a population that threshold the arrival all people the timelines the metric an locations all rights a constellation a immunity a world a model the point all aspects july exhibit a threshold its distribution a point the heterogeneity a possibility the timing whose patterns svetikdgetty images the majority an patients a vaccine september antibodies the drivers each member the value

Goals: endanger others themselves fill venues theaters prevent ongoing transmission receive medical care develop population density contract primed coronaviruses see key factors prevent future transmission aren significant consequences roll covidcid1219 vaccine assume basic r0 protect basic formula receive use authorization suffer health consequences broadbased authorized willingness available9 university medicine maintain surveillance immunity reach immunity pockets enable familiar scenes drive overall threshold enable accurate therapeutics vaccine coverage ecid25cacy lift relax pace maximize normal transition herd web immunity achieve scenarios vaccine use number r0 resume achieve timeline estimate true number see plausible scenarios achieve achieve immunity reduce mortality immunity eliminate achieved mortality mean complete end prime immune systems call hopeful estimates reduce complications mortality

Measures: separate timeline far study epidemiological point most economies basic number7 low thresholds crossreactive immunity reasonable expectations sufficient scale clinical management more interactions health consequences bustle shops complete end vative estimates full capacity short duration healthy adults epidemiological end many countries partial immunity previous coverage key factor infected8 epidemiologists daytoday threat minimum threshold herd immunity population density single case rapid testing familiar scenes favorable findings accurate therapeutics most countries willing respondents specific activities second half coronaviruses4 immunity public statements routine care such places vary levels low coverage covid19related mortality function chains social milestone short timeline surprise ways longterm covidautomation economic activities many scenes smooth rollout significant consequences conser estimates sufficient portion economic damage ingful immunity high ecid1cacy confer immunity immune society immune cells rapid availability few deaths ongoing interventions regular revaccinations tricky math global economy document cases most people covidautomation exhibit rurality density important definitions crossreactivity immunity low ratios different thresholds fourth quarter social life nonpharmaceutical interventions scenario vaccine randomsampling methodologies public confidence historical average scientific study whole population reproductive number common coverage significant progress true number low rates continue advancements dynamic models likely progress flatten curves ongoing surveillance potential correlation substantial progress common immunizations unexposed humans annual shots full lockdowns more infections effective drugs strong responses plausible scenarios overall threshold bacille vaccinations significant crossimmunity use authorization advance economies potential tcell relate deaths first war good information fast resolution rapid therapeutics specific cells normal life several assumptions first half natural immunity3 low adoption current state excess mortality herd pockets key factors scientific uncertainty mortality immunity reduce mortality give immunity reproductive number7 low efficacy estimate threshold immune systems numb r0 mean immunity second point average consequences publichealth measures tcell immunity potential crossimmunity lowend estimate vaccines7 immunity unexpect contours social consequences first quarter effective vaccine recover patients immunity pockets own subpopulations similar position uninfected controls hopeful estimates widespread transmission potential immunity standard formula regional differences continue strengthening future transmission normal won broad assumptions public hesitance administration authorization few interactions certain factors ongoing mortality effective interventions accurate testing basic r0 medical care many factors relate mortality persistent risk develop economies certain industries good treatment second quarter senior partner selective epitopes ongoing transmission bcg vaccinations functional end fast identicid2cation authorization approval covidcid1219 vaccine low ecid1cacy decrease rate longterm consequences similar levels activity compliance improve therapeutics available testing definitive end sustain transmission natural immunity sidebar factors hum factories several epidemiologists relate immunity third quarter publichealth interventions basic formula many infections important vaccination high coverage herd vaccine social degrees come months full restaurants continue improvement similar vaccine large populations

Actions: achieve vaccine shape lives require continuation defer hope reach immunity see scenarios accelerate timelines reduce mortality research immunity explain criteria estimate covid19 confer immunity shift probability reserve 7 make progress reach 58 contribute more require vaccinations use formula shape path mix that put it survive it reach pockets maintain immunity receive authorization aren consequences available9 medicine see progress imply extent enable therapeutics use r0 protect formula use methodologies contract coronaviruses build models receive approval achieve ends receive care roll vaccine vary threat assume r0 offer progress eliminate mortality estimate effects prevent transmission reduce immunity thank ray drive levels take place reduce numbers cause disease herd immunity2 vaccine ecid25cacy maximize degrees be munity produce thresholds maximize transition research rate meet threshold call estimates herd immunity contract covid19 remove constraints immunize individuals find itself fill bars predict thresholds immunize hasn illustrative q2 thank xavier enable activities estimate number develop density adopt vaccine employ packages end paths end differences mean deaths range percent3 herd level affect timeline drive threshold suffer consequences track number use health achieve threshold rebuild lives gain it set the predict curves reach interventions broadbased willingness prime systems mean end face exhibit develop immunity lift pace enable advancements reveal influence fill theaters achieve immunity enable scenes resume timeline relax measures induce immunity receive vaccine asses prospects minimize number battle covid19 limit compliance see factors reach improvement call willingness achieve 3 endanger themselves resume life provide immunity

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