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When-will-the-COVID-19-pandemic-end-January-2021-update.pdf?shouldIndex=f
auto-generated 31-Jan-2021
Healthcare Systems & Services Practice When will the COVID-19 pandemic end? An update This article updates our earlier perspectives on when the coronavirus pandemic will end. Transition toward normalcy in the United States remains most likely in the second quarter of 2021 and herd immunity in the third and fourth quarters, but the emergence of new strains and a slow start to vaccine rollout raise real risks to both timelines. We also add a perspective for the United Kingdom. by Sarun Charumilind

Keywords

immunity in the united united states herd immunity united kingdom united immunity herd achieve herd immunity vaccine

Sources: McKinsey

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This section lists the Pathway type, Priority/ function areas, Sectors/ fields of life and People/ roles for the pathway.
Type:   Strategies
Priority/ Function Areas:   Business & Industrial  Computers & Electronics  Finance  Internet & Telecom
Sectors/ Fields of Life:   Manufacturing  Wholesale & Retail Trade  Information, Finance & Insurance  Technical & Management Services
People/ Roles:   Consumer Services  Service Vendors  Manufacturers  Multi-Nationals  Governments
This section lists the Categories, Goals, Measures and Actions included in the pathway.
Categories:   world   transition   dose   pandemic   likely   infectious   state   population   coverage   office   unite   covid-19   second   person   january   phase   rollout   toward   increase   update   strain   percent   vaccine   infection   variant   manufacturer   normalcy   immunity   partner
Profiles:   all rights   the rate   the impact   uk variant   a dose   a variant   the pandemic   the case   a number   this approaches   this article   the vaccines   each member   every country   the pace   the development   smith governors   a surveys   a update   that stories   the chance   the strain   the intersection   the threat   the emergence   the model   1b persons   a portion   the virus   each infection   the variant   the weeks   a delay   the potential   we model   the risks   a transition   the chairman   a percentage   this strains   each estimates   the approval   the start   the rollout   whose patterns   svetikdgetty images   the fraction   russell vaccines   this delay   the threshold
Goals:   increase handle measures   use basic r0   age aged persons   end updates update   cause limited outbreaks   arise safety concerns   embrace believe opportunity   end taking update   report trial data   increase needed levels   deliver vaccinate doses   increase continues risk   represent potential source   accelerate transmission rollout   meet uncertain americans   use rough guide   immunize large percentage   end affect update   require societal response   age less population   achieve immunity adoption   reach significant percentage   rollout slow start   reduce slow efficacy   end global survey   increase achieved risk
Measures:   prior infection   medical conditions   moretransmissible variants   limit capacity   several vaccines   more time   low thresholds   first person   significant variability   vaccine race   real risks   early end   bla applications   potential revaccination   early vaccines   slow adoption   more variants   high case   significant chance   multiple mutations   similar dynamics   les tolerance   different profiles   essential workers   rough guide   entire population   little chance   normal part   unexpect issues   early herd   new strain   illustrative estimate   clinical trial1   significant disease   future updates   slow increase   serious illness   ongoing disease   manufacture distribution   herd immunity   past months   medium term   few months   increase immunity   increase number   immunity probability   particular communities   mathematical modelling   general population   special threat   highrisk populations   high rates   initial rollout   moreinfectious strains   follow issues   continue use   social life   societal response   herdimmunity thresholds   long timeline   les population   regulatory authorization   moreinfectious variants   fourth quarter   initial increase   short term   clinical data   year persons   welldeveloped programs   equal countries   small wave   elderly individuals   vaccine effort   covid19 story   little margin   reproductive number   many places3   low vaccine   increase recognition   slow rollout   annual peaks   ongoing efforts   immunity adoption   potential source   own decisions   second doses   public willingness   high proportion   large percentage   new virus   more people   third quarters   enhance transmissibility   interim recommendations   infectious variants   more infections   limit outbreaks   infectious hazards   conflict news   intermittent outbreaks   increase coverage   previous estimates   early days   novel variant   clinical diseases   estimate transmissibility   first half   northern hemisphere   predictable peaks   immunity vaccine   new cases   vaccine doses   vaccinate individuals   same range   difficult case   safety concerns   own subpopulations   second willingness   first quarter   isolate cases   disease progression   publichealth measures   vaccinate efficacy   numb r0   old people   trial data   early transition   viral sequencing   recent weeks   herd adoption   global survey   many locations   unqualified success   infectious diseases   significant percentage   early rollout   new strains   original strain   great risk   shorterthananticipated duration   few interactions   dose protocols   early vaccine   much work   early perspectives   basic r0   genetic sequencing   occur issues   initial estimates   biontech vaccine   future spikes   age persons   coverage levels   significant manufacturing   first dose   second quarter   more detail   public health   exceptional response   ongoing measures   slow start   potential acceptance   senior partner   many parts   functional end   downside risk   own story   herd immunity4   cdc phase   third quarter   shortterm rollout   sustain transmission   natural immunity   sufficient vaccine   many settings   anticipate duration   big guardian   past weeks   reproductive advantage   full approval   come months   near term   likely timelines   great normalization
Actions:   manage risk   abate work   protect groups   improve speed   stop symptoms   require vaccines   vaccinate americans   save lives   reach immunity   use 1r0   enter post   take variables   reduce efficacy   use formula   see normalization   link london   end keenan   use guide   combine mutations   reduce mortality   prevent spikes   arise concerns   cause outbreaks   validate this   reserve 7   warn times   increase levels   reach 58   increase clarity   stop service   have bureau   embrace opportunity   blunt transition   improve situation   need doses   vaccinate populations   take time   use r0   lead race   assume vaccine   weren t   warn pandemic   increase proportion   increase measures   broaden access   receive jab   reduce transmission   raise thresholds   prevent transmission   acquire immunity   age persons   reduce deaths   describe timelines   delay doses   protect individuals   aid decline   lead us   reach kind   end transition   raise threshold   manage recognition   show cacy   increase exhibit   confer immunity   vaccinate people   deliver doses   give dose   bring array   warn coronavirus   end 17   immunize percentage   see dynamics   achieve probability   add perspective   reach immunity4   control spread   make history   receive vaccinations   novavax people   affect estimates   allow normalization   monitor revaccination   increase consensus   require response   control pandemic   emerge estimates   end survey   speed effort   protect much   meet americans   increase risk   minimize cases   underestimate spread1112   raise bar   age phase   represent call   age population   threaten timeline   end update   accelerate rollout   prevent progression   update perspectives   handle them   improve odds   increase confidence   achieve risk   raise risks   report data   reach percentage   rollout start   require percent   represent source   achieve immunity   delay immunity   protect those   receive vaccine   achieve adoption   smash records   affect that   delay timelines   herd vaccine
This section lists the details about pathway-specific attributes.